The full trend for this question is shown in Table 17. There are substantial differences in perceived debate performance by partisanship, as shown in Table 2. The full trend is shown in Table 11. Before looking to the future, Director of Marquette Law School Poll Charles Franklin is taking a deep dive into voter trends in 2020. Eighty percent of Trump voters expect him to win and 11% expect Biden to win. Those findings are an outlier, as FiveThirtyEight noted Wednesday.N o other poll of the state showed that size of a margin for Biden since June. This poll interviewed 805 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone from Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2020. The Marquette University Law School poll saw a more than 150% increase in its response rates as Wisconsinites faced stay-at-home orders during the novel coronavirus pandemic. Other findings from the new poll include: The poll was conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2020. The finding is one of many from the latest Marquette Law School Poll released Wednesday, which shows Wisconsin voters otherwise largely support major initiatives Evers has proposed in his budget, with a few exceptions. Because the group is small, this anomaly has little effect on the overall vote margin. The poll will look at voter intentions, how voters feel about the candidates, and who is most likely to vote in the November election. Through debates, symposia, public lectures, panels, conferences, and the Law School's On the Issues series, Marquette University Law School has established itself as a leading venue for serious civil discourse about law and public policy matters affecting the region and beyond. The margin for Trump among Election Day voters has declined over time, while Biden’s advantage among absentee and early in-person voters has remained strong over the last two months. Table 15: Vote by age, September-October combined. Republicans are divided on the issue, while a large majority of independents support requiring masks and Democrats are almost unanimous in support. Table 20: Ballot type, by poll, May-October 2020. The new poll results were announced in a video conference between poll director Charles Franklin and Mike Gousha. Marquette poll shows Biden up 5 in Wisconsin. The vote margins may be sensitive to assumptions about turnout. Marquette poll: Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 49% to 41% in Wisconsin ... according to Wednesday's Marquette University Law School Poll. Most Republicans intend to vote in person on Election Day, with fewer than one-fifth planning to choose absentee by mail. Results for that group have a margin of error of +/- 6.4 percentage points. The margin of error is +/-4.2 percentage points for the full sample. New Marquette Law School Poll finds that, amid major developments, there has been little change in Wisconsin voter’s presidential preferences. Table 1 shows the trend in vote among likely voters from May through September. Tables 8 and 9 show favorable and unfavorable ratings for Pence and Harris this fall. The model results for likely voters are based on those respondents who say they are certain they will vote or have already done so. Marquette.edu // News Center // 2020 News Releases  //. With substantial partisan differences in choice of ballot type, there are large differences in candidate choice by ballot type, as shown in Table 23 among likely voters. Franklin co-founded pollster.com, an award-winning site for nonpartisan polling analysis, and is a member of the ABC News election-night analysis team. An additional 9% declined to say for whom they voted. Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45% Republican and 45% Democratic, with 9% independent. In the new poll, Biden is the choice of 46% of likely voters and Trump is supported by 41%. Table 10 shows approval, since June, of Trump’s handling of protests since the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis. Tables 4 and 5 shows trends on this question since June. Through debates, symposia, public lectures, panels, conferences, and the Law School's On the Issues series, Marquette University Law School has established itself as a leading venue for serious civil discourse about law and public policy matters affecting the region and beyond. There is little change from September to October. Evers’ handling of the coronavirus issue brings approval from 56% and disapproval from 38%. More people than in September say they are very worried by the risk of getting ill from the coronavirus, and support for requiring masks in public places is slightly higher than in August when last asked. Table 7: Support for requiring masks by party identification by poll, August and October 2020, Views of protests, BLM and Evers’ response to events in Kenosha. In August, 69% supported a mask requirement and 29% were opposed. Through debates, symposia, public lectures, panels, conferences, and the Law School's On the Issues series, Marquette University Law School has established itself as a leading venue for serious civil discourse about law and public policy matters affecting the region and beyond. Approval is 3 points higher than in early October, with no change in disapproval. This poll interviewed 806 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Oct. 21-25, 2020. Table 4 shows how worries have varied since March, when the percent very or somewhat worried was at the highest level seen so far. The results range from a margin for Biden of 3% in a lower turnout than expected, a margin for Biden of 4% in a high turnout in which all registered voters voted, and the previously mentioned 5% Biden margin in our standard likely-voter model. Among Biden voters, 80% expect him to win and 6% expect Trump to win. The Marquette Law Poll is a public policy initiative of Marquette University Law School.. Franklin has directed the poll since its inception in 2012 and is a professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School. The full trend since March is shown in Table 13. 1250 W. Wisconsin Ave. News and results will be available on Twitter via the @MULawPoll account beginning at 12:15 p.m. An advisory detailing media availability will be released at a later date. Approval of protests over police violence against Black Americans declined from June to early August, prior to events in Kenosha, but barely moved following the late-August Kenosha shootings and protests, as shown in Table 8. Contact Kevin at (414) 288-4745 or kevin.m.conway@marquette.edu. Views of the direction of the economy have turned sharply down since February, with many more people saying the economy has gotten worse over the past year. In late October, the percentage living comfortably rose while the percentages just getting by or struggling declined. Results and commentary will be synchronously released on Twitter via the @MULawPoll account. Another 7% said they would vote for none of these candidates, didn’t know how they would vote or declined to say. Handling of the economy remains Trump’s strongest area of approval, with 51% approval and 45% disapproval in October. A complete news release and poll data, including toplines and slides, will be available shortly after 12:30 p.m. on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Half of respondents think the pandemic will continue for another year or more before things start to return to normal, while 20% say it will be under control within three months. Table 20: Approval of protests against police shootings, June-October 2020. Table 11: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, March-October 2020. Table 5: When do you think the coronavirus outbreak will be under control and things can get back to normal? Evers handling of coronavirus outbreak, approval, Approval of how the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job. By party identification. After six months of elevated approval ratings, approval of Gov. This is a sharply partisan issue, as shown in Table 3. Approval of protests over police violence against Black Americans declined from June to early August, prior to a police officer’s shooting Jacob Blake in Kenosha, but barely moved following the Kenosha shooting and protests, as shown in Table 20. Subscribe … MILWAUKEE, Wis. (WBAY) - The last Marquette Law School Poll before the election indicates another close presidential race in Wisconsin. Table 8: Favorable or unfavorable view of Pence, September-October 2020, Table 9: Favorable or unfavorable view of Harris, September-October 2020. The results are little changed from the Marquette Law School poll conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 4, in which Biden was the choice of 47%, Trump the choice of 42% and Jorgensen the choice of 4%. In May, 42% were comfortable and 57% were uncomfortable, while in June 49% were comfortable and 49% were uncomfortable. Table 24 shows the comparison by party for 2016 and 2020. In the poll, 41% of registered voters say they have already voted either by absentee or in-person early voting. Democrat Joe … However, respondents have a strongly positive outlook for the economy over the next 12 months. The poll was conducted Oct. 21-25, 2020. The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This is the first time since January 2019, when the legislature’s job approval was first asked, that more disapprove than approve. Table 10: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of his job as president, March-October 2020, Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. While twice as many respondents say former Vice President Joe Biden did better in the debate as say Trump did better, the shift in the vote margin since early September is a single point. In early September, Biden was supported by 47%, Trump by 43% and Jorgensen by 4%. In the new October poll, 64% say they always wear a mask when in a public place, 20% say they do so most of the time, 12% do so only now and then and 3% say they never wear a mask when in public. The poll shows little change from the Oct. 4 poll which had Biden with 47% of votes and Trump with 42%. Table 1 shows the trend in presidential preference among likely voters from September through October. Among respondents interviewed Oct. 2-4, after Trump announced that he had tested positive for COVID-19, 33% say they think he has a mild case, 13% say it is a moderate case, 8% say it is a serious case and 3% say it is a very serious case. May was the high-water mark, among all partisan categories, for the percentage saying they would vote absentee by mail. This appears to be noisy sampling variation. Table 27 shows the trend in family finances since January. MILWAUKEE, Wis. (WBAY) - The last Marquette Law School Poll before the election indicates another close presidential race in Wisconsin. Table 18: Tony Evers’ job approval, January-October 2020. This is the final Marquette Law School poll before the November 3 election. Among all registered voters, 43% say “cares about people like you” describes Trump and 54% say this does not describe him. News and results will be available on Twitter via the @MULawPoll account beginning at 12:15 p.m. An advisory detailing media availability will be released at a later date. That is a one-point decline in approval from September. Most think that in-person campaign rallies should be halted, while a majority think the debates should continue. Among registered voters, 44% have a favorable view overall of Trump and 54% have an unfavorable view of him. Table 3: Vote for likely voters and allocated vote, respectively. Table 1: Vote among likely voters, May-October 2020. 2020 Elections. #mulawpoll — MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 7, … The poll was conducted Sept. 8-15. The number who say they will vote in person on Election Day continues to rise. Each day will feature a video conversation between poll director Charles Franklin and Mike Gousha, distinguished fellow in law and public policy, available at 12:15 p.m. CST on the Marquette Law School website. That is a 3-point increase in approval and no change in disapproval since early October. Fifty-six percent say this describes Biden and 40% say this does not describe him. Table 20 shows the trend since May. Table 17: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, March-October 2020, Approval of Evers’ job performance and handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Table 27: Family financial situation, January-September 2020. Fifty-two percent say they are comfortable eating inside at a restaurant, while 47% say they are uncomfortable doing so. Table 19: Favor or oppose the Supreme Court’s declaring the ACA unconstitutional, by party identification, October 2020. Less than a half of 1% say both candidates did well. Biden’s favorable rating has slowly increased, with October showing the first net favorable rating for him this year at 48% favorable with 45% unfavorable. The sample included 805 registered voters in Wisconsin, interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Tables 25 and 26 show the recent trends in these measures. Among Biden supporters, 95% say their minds are made up. Among Democrats, 3% are voting for Trump and 92% are voting for Biden, with none for Jorgensen and 4% undecided or declining to say. Trump’s law and order message falls flat in Wisconsin . White voters were far more likely to have a favorable view (81%) than Black and Latino voters (36% and 60%). Table 28: Evers recent favorability trend, Table 29: Sen. Tammy Baldwin recent favorability trend, Table 30: Sen. Ron Johnson recent favorability trend. Table 12: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of protests, June-October 2020. Among likely voters, 91% say their minds are made up while 6% say they might change their minds. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points for the full sample. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen is the choice of 4%, while 8% say they would vote for none of these candidates, don’t know how they would vote or decline to say. Biden drew 46% support to 43% for Trump, the poll's official Twitter account tweeted: "New Marquette Law School Poll finds that presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden remains close in Wisconsin, with Biden at 46%, Trump at 43%. The number of voters who say they will vote absentee by mail has leveled off at about a third of the total, compared to 43% who said in May that they planned to do that. MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden the choice of 48% of likely voters in Wisconsin, President Donald Trump supported by 43% and Libertarian Jo Jorgensen receiving 2%. There is less variation in support of presidential candidates than in either the 2012 or 2016 summer and fall Marquette Law School polls. March-October 2020. By party identification. Kevin is the associate director for university communication in the Office of Marketing and Communication. For Sen. Kamala Harris, 25% say they are very confident and 20% are somewhat confident in her ability to perform the duties of president, while 11% are not very confident and 29% are not at all confident. By party identification and by year, October 2016 and October 2020, Table 25: Change in economy over past 12 months, January-October 2020, Table 26: Outlook for the economy over the next 12 months, January-October 2020. The full trend since May is shown in Table 16. Marquette University Law School poll director Charles Franklin discusses the latest results, which show Democrat Joe Biden leading by single digits with … The ongoing coronavirus pandemic and how comfortable people are with reopening schools are also covered in the poll. There was little change in reported financial situation from September to October. Forty-eight percent say, if they were in the Senate, they would vote to confirm Barrett, while 38% would vote against her confirmation. Tony Evers handled events in Kenosha following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in August, while 44% disapprove of his response. Results and commentary will be available on Twitter via the @MULawPoll account beginning at 12:15 p.m. An advisory detailing media availability will … Judge Amy Coney Barrett has been nominated to fill the vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court created by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Because vote by age has been an important topic, Tables 14 and 15 show the vote by age for this sample and compare it to vote by age for the last three polls combined, using likely voters. … By Kati Anderson . Table 28: Evers’ recent favorability trend, Table 29: Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s recent favorability trend, Table 30: Sen. Ron Johnson’s recent favorability trend. Marquette University Among Republicans, 61% say they are very or somewhat confident the votes will be accurately counted and 37% are not too confident or not at all confident. Tables 28-30 present the recent favorability ratings of elected officials in Wisconsin and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know. A third of respondents think Trump has mild symptoms from COVID-19, while slightly more say they don’t yet know how ill he is. Independents say they are voting for Biden over Trump by a 36-28% margin, with 12% for Jorgensen and 24% undecided or declining to say. Twenty-one percent say they are not at all worried, virtually the same as the 19% in September. Table 1: Vote preference among likely voters, September-October 2020, Sensitivity of results to turnout and undecided voters. Marquette Law School Poll puts Biden ahead of Trump It's the largest Biden margin in Marquette polls this year. Tony Evers’ job performance. There are three likely themes for this initiative: presidential and Senate campaigns; citizen reaction to the current state administration and its … Table 17: Do you think the decision last spring to close schools and businesses and to restrict the size of public gatherings was an appropriate response to the coronavirus outbreak or was it an overreaction that did more harm than good? Democrat Joe … MILWAUKEE, Wis. (WBAY) - The last Marquette Law School Poll before the election indicates another close presidential race in Wisconsin. The poll will also look at how people have responded to the protests in support of the Black Lives Matter movement and how those responses have changed since June, as well as feelings about police use of deadly force and how President Trump has responded to the protests. In this poll, the 18-29-year-old sample is more Republican and more likely to vote for Trump than has typically been the case. MILWAUKEE — Marquette University Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin will present results of a new statewide poll on Wednesday, Sept. 9, via a video conversation with Mike Gousha available at 12:15 p.m. A complete news release and poll data, including toplines and slides, will be available shortly after 12:30 p.m. on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Results and commentary will be available on Twitter via the @MULawPoll account beginning at 12:15 p.m. An advisory detailing media availability will … Table 11: Favorable or unfavorable view of Trump, January-October 2020, Table 12: Favorable or unfavorable view of Biden, January-October 2020. In contrast, 67% say the vice-presidential and remaining presidential debates should be held as scheduled, while 23% say the debates should be canceled. In late October, 22% say they are very worried about becoming ill from the coronavirus, a decrease from 27% in early October despite the rise of cases in the state. The results of the runoff election in Georgia will determine who controls the Senate during at least the first part of President-elect Joe Biden’s presidency. There are 749 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. Table 6: Favorable or unfavorable view of Trump, May-Oct. 2020, Table 7: Favorable or unfavorable view of Biden, May-October 2020. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic and 40% percent independent. Partisan divides are vivid in new Law School Poll results, Wedge Issues podcast: Charles Franklin on polls, partisanship and public opinion These results are shown in Table 5. Franklin led the Law School Poll during the highly scrutinized 2012 election cycle, establishing Marquette as the definitive source for information concerning public opinion in Wisconsin. Among Republicans, 7% say they are voting for Biden, while 86% are voting for Trump, 3% for Jorgensen and 4% undecided or declining to say. Given the consistency of Biden’s margin in multiple polls this year, it is likely that the 18-29-year-old result in October is a sampling anomaly rather than a real change. According to the Wisconsin Elections Commission data, 37.5% of registered voters had voted as of the end of the poll’s field period on Oct. 25. A new Marquette Law School Poll out Wednesday touched on a hot-button issue of late – public opinion of the U.S. Supreme Court. Handling of the economy remains Trumps strongest area of approval, with 51% approval and 48% disapproval in the new poll, a 3-point increase in disapproval. Tables 13 and 14 shows favorable and unfavorable ratings for Pence and Harris this fall. On Nov. 10, the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments in cases that challenge the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, also known as the “ACA” or “Obamacare.” Thirty-five percent would favor the Court’s declaring the law unconstitutional, while 55% would oppose it doing so. If all age groups are weighted to match their long-term partisan composition, the overall vote margin changes by only 1 percentage point, to 48% Biden and 42% for Trump. As of October, 44% approve and 52% disapprove. Trump has held a 42% favorable rating since June, with 53-to-55% unfavorable. #mulawpoll" The poll showed that 69% believe the “safer at home” order is appropriate, down from 86% in March. The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. In September, 51% approved and 43% disapproved. The president gets good marks in the poll for his handling of the economy, 52 percent approve while 44 percent disapprove. This is a sharply partisan issue, as shown in Table 18. This is little changed from October 2016, when 34% said they had stopped talking and 65% said they had not. Results and commentary will be available on Twitter via the @MULawPoll account, beginning at 12:15 p.m. An advisory detailing media availability will be released at a later date. October 2020. The trend in overall approval of Evers since March is shown in Table 22. About 48 percent of likely voters favor the former vice president, compared with 43 who back Trump, according to the poll. The video will be available at 12:15 p.m. CST on the law school website. Marquette University Law School poll released on Tuesday showed. In October, 52% approve and 42% disapprove of his job performance. The trend in approval and disapproval is shown in Table 19. 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